ESPN’s Projected Win Totals: Toledo’s great odds. Kent State, not so much.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly with the math update again. This time, we’re talking average projected win totals.

Toledo has the best odds of winning the most games in the MAC with a projected average win total of 8.3 overall, and 5.6 in MAC play. It’s only 5%, but it’s still the best odds of any MAC team finishing with 1 or 0 losses on the year, and will undoubtably reach at least 6 wins on the year (98% odds).

More notes:
  • Buffalo’s odds are great because the roster still has some noteworthy talent and experience that could square up against its competition in the East division.
  • Ball State, defending MAC champs, has the third-best odds in MAC play (4.7) and fifth-best in overall wins (6.7) even though there’s no considerable drop-off anywhere on the roster this year.
  • Given how everybody (generally) expects Ohio to win a lot of games but never win a MAC title and seeing that there’s still a 1% chance of the Bobcats going undefeated or 1-defeated is pretty neat.
  • Kent State’s the people’s preseason champion for the East, but SP+ computer ratings don’t think the same way we humans do. Kent State has the fourth-worst odds of reaching at least 6 wins (38%).

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